Good Morning Bitcoin, 3 August
Today's Snapshot
- BIP-110's zero-miner mandate proves Bitcoin SV's open-data thesis
- Circle's federal trust bank reshapes stablecoin settlement
- Bitcoin holds $63K as hawkish Fed signals September hike debate
BTC's data-limit soft fork is heading for its activation window, and not a single miner is signalling support. Circle just secured a federal banking licence, shifting the stablecoin settlement landscape and Bitcoin sits flat at $63,000 as markets brace for a possible September rate hike. Here's what all this means for the chain that's actually built to handle these changes. Let's dive in:
BIP-110 enters its make-or-break window with zero miner support
The news
BIP-110, a proposed one-year soft fork that would restrict non-financial data from Bitcoin transactions, enters its mandatory signalling window around block 961,632 between August 7 and August 15. Miner support is at or near zero, far below the 55% threshold needed for activation.
BIP-110 aims to temporarily ban Ordinals, BRC-20 tokens and Runes from BTC block space, giving financial transactions top priority on the network. Supporters say inscription traffic crowds out payments and drives up fees for regular users. Miners, who've earned real revenue from those inscription fees, aren't signalling. Adam Back and Michael Saylor have both come out against the plan. Support remains stuck in low single digits, and with the deadline just two weeks away, the soft fork looks set to either fork off into a minority chain or just expire, unused.
What's next?
If the signalling window closes without 55% support, BIP-110 won't activate. Proponents might try a new BIP with different activation rules, but given BTC's tough governance process, any revival faces the same miner veto. The question of what Bitcoin block space should be used for just hangs in the air on BTC.
The Takeaway
BTC's block space civil war is the clearest demonstration yet that Bitcoin SV's open-data design was right from day one.
BIP-110 exists because BTC can't agree on whether its ledger should carry data. BSV never had that issue. The Chronicle upgrade earlier this year removed the last artificial Script constraints, and the network processed 12.79 million transactions in April alone. Enterprise users building data-anchoring, provenance and micro-transaction apps don't need governance permission on BSV. They just build. Every week the BIP-110 debate drags on, BSV's settled data question stands out as the only real foundation for global-scale apps.
Circle's federal trust bank licence reshapes regulated stablecoin settlement
The news
Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) got final approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish Circle National Trust, a federally chartered trust bank. The company reports Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, with analysts estimating $720 million in revenue and $0.165 EPS.
Circle National Trust gives USDC a direct route into the US federal banking system, letting Circle hold reserves under federal supervision and offer custody and settlement to institutional clients. The timing matters: Circle went public in mid-2025, and this is its first full public earnings cycle. The projected EPS of $0.165 is down from the same quarter last year, partly because IPO-related compensation pulled costs forward. Revenue at $720 million still shows strong stablecoin economics in the current reserve yield environment. The OCC approval places Circle in the same regulatory league as major custodian banks.
What's next?
The Q2 earnings result on August 5 will be the first public-company test of USDC's business model under ongoing regulatory scrutiny. More importantly, Circle National Trust sets a new standard: a federally chartered stablecoin issuer with reserve banking status. That will push other stablecoin issuers toward the same regulatory stance, raising the bar for institutional-grade settlement infrastructure.
The Takeaway
Circle's OCC trust bank licence validates BSV's argument that the future of settlement is a regulated, auditable public ledger.
The approval backs up what BSV has said for years: real financial infrastructure needs an auditable, always-on public record, not a permissioned sidechain or a bank's private database. USDC settling through a federally chartered trust bank is a big step toward programmable money. The open question for BSV is whether its native payment rails - with immutable on-chain finality, micropayment capability and no block space governance fights - can position as the settlement layer under that regulated stablecoin stack. Every time a regulated entity picks public-ledger transparency over private alternatives, BSV's case as public infrastructure gets stronger.
Bitcoin holds $63K as a hawkish Fed hold sets up a September inflection point
The news
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% at its late-July meeting. Three FOMC members dissented in favor of higher rates, signalling that the hiking debate isn't over. Bitcoin started August trading around $63,000, and spot ETFs saw $265 million in net outflows on July 31.
Bitcoin's price has dropped about 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000. The hawkish hold, plus three dissenting FOMC votes, has markets now considering a September rate hike as a real possibility. Bitcoin ETF flows show the risk-off mood: BlackRock's IBIT lost $122.7 million, Fidelity's FBTC $54.8 million and Grayscale's GBTC $52.6 million on the last day of July. The price stayed above $60,000 support. Analyst consensus puts Bitcoin's August average near $68,000, assuming macro conditions don't get worse.
What's next?
Circle's Q2 earnings on August 5 and BIP-110's signalling window are the two crypto-native catalysts to watch this week. On the macro side, the September FOMC meeting is the next big moment for BTC price direction. If a rate hike happens, it'll likely test the $60,000 floor again and keep the current consolidation going.
The Takeaway
Bitcoin's price sensitivity to macro policy reinforces why BSV's value thesis must be anchored in utility, not speculation.
BSV trades at a fraction of BTC's price, and that's partly down to market structure and liquidity. But BSV's investment case was never about being digital gold or an ETF product. The volatility that saw BTC lose half its value from its peak - driven by macro moves, ETF flows and leverage - is just part of speculative markets, not a feature of a data and payments utility network. The more macro-driven BTC's price becomes, the clearer it is: "digital gold" and "programmable global ledger" are two totally different bets. BSV is the latter.
What to Watch
- Zanaadu debuts as a rules-first BSV social network: Ben Swan and John Calhoun just launched Zanaadu, a BSV social network where every post, like and moderation rule happens right on-chain. This launch brings another live app to the BSV ecosystem, especially as the Chronicle-upgraded network keeps showing off its data capacity and developer buzz.
- CLARITY Act short of 60 votes as Senate recess approaches August 8: The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act still doesn't have the 60 votes it needs for a floor vote as the Senate heads toward its August recess. Crypto market structure regulation won't move forward until at least September, which leaves businesses waiting for US legal clarity in limbo.
- Circle Q2 earnings on August 5 will be stablecoin's first public-company report card: Wall Street is eyeing Circle's Q2 2026 results, with $720 million in projected revenue up against higher costs. It's a real test for the stablecoin model - if Circle pulls off a strong quarter, it could finally prove regulated stablecoin infrastructure is ready for institutional investors.
The ledger that wins is the one that actually works when markets don't.